Tiers- Performance stats- breeding, thoughts and calcualtions
Aleon [Basic || 87 posts] on 12/21/2023 5:51 pm
Sorry for the awful title I have no clue about what to name this, or even where to post it
Background
Some months ago I started to think about what ranks and tiers horses reaches and what level they can reach during their life time with the results training gives. To get some more than scattered thoughts I started to collect data in an excel file. I know that my data set isn’t complete but I think it’s good enough to make some conclusions.
Method
What I started with was to calculate training results every time I train a horse. This calculation is mostly done in my head and pretty fast so there may be some miscalculations. If I became wary that it felt wrong with the numbers I remembered I left the data out of the file. One important thing to notice here is that I have discarded a lot more data on the low end of the scale than the high end (where I left out exactly one data point) so my data set will give a bit higher result than could have been expected.
What I have collected is as said above training data for different Training boosts. In this One training is the entire training set of 5 trainings/ 7week.
Added to this I have also measured heredity for performance stats.
From these two I have calculated the theoretic maximum performance stat at an age of 20 years. I know that a horse can get 30 but as they start to retire at 20 you can’t really calculate on getting offsprings later than that.
Results and discussion
A foal will get between 24,9 and 25,1% of the PS it’s parents have in a discipline.
Increased training boosts increase in general the result of training but less than I would have expected. There is also a very low accuracy around the average result. If we look at some different TB so is the average results as following
TB Average Minimum Maximum Numbers of observations
TB18 157,6 102 210 137
TB19 160,5 113 204 75
TB20 174,3 122 216 107
TB21 179,4 129 229 70
TB22 182,7 134 237 100
TB23 188,8 142 243 70
TB24 193,2 136 237 32
For TBs higher than 24 I have less than 10 datapoints for each and those results are in my opinion to unreliable. My maximum TB is 28 and that is due to luck with a 6E offspring that was calculated to give TB 26.
As you can see I have here worked with quite high TBs. A TB of 20 means that you need to be lucky enough to get 6E with parents on level 90 as average or have parents with level 100 in average.
At the moment there are only 77 active horses with level 100 and above. Added to the active there are a lot of these horses in the freezer, in most cases probably due to their extremely high value as breeding stock. It’s a lot of work to level a horse to level 100. Maximum level on active horses is at this point 138.
To calculate the theoretical maximum PS for a horse we need to create some equations
1st equation is 2Y*0,25=X
2nd equation is X+Z=Y
where Y is maximum PS, X is maximum birth PS and Z is maximum earned PS through training.
As we only can make two equations we have to set Z as a number. To calculate in a positive way I have with the results from my training calculations decided to use 4200 for Z. That represents 200 PS from a total of 21 training sessions. We can increase that for more than a life span of 20 years but you will see that it doesn’t change much in the end.
Long story short if we solve this system of equations we will get the result that X is 4200 and Y is 8400.
If we do the calculation on a line of horses that reach an age of 30 years we will get a Z of 12400. This would lead to a maximum of tier 3, rank universal. As horses tend to die long before an age of 30 this is only a very theoretical calculation. Of course a horse at that age will also have reached higher levels and give higher TB so their foals but with the very small increasement of training (5 points/TB) that is not something that will benefit your herd in the long run.
Conclusion
In the Wiki we can, under “horses”-“showing”, find a “rank and tier” list that has 5 tiers with ranks from foundation to universal. With the numbers from this list we can immediately see that it will be impossible to reach tier 5 or even 4. The maximum theoretical tier you can reach is tier 3 and rank state. With a horse that lives longer than 20 you can come a bit higher but with the only 25% of the parents PS inherited to the foal that will not be something to build on and definitely not to reach tier 4 or 5.
Data
All data used for these calcualtions can be found here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TAjUP2V5_sIhDP6d01vi4aGaMGgSJHAMHx9kKiK2ehE/edit?usp=sharing
Very interesting - thank you for sharing!
(Sorry my brain is too tired for a more thoughtful response!)
I have continued to collect data on this, notice that the spread sheet is not updated at the moment.
To get a better picture of what is happening during training I wrote down the result of each single training session and than summarized them. I don’t know if it’s possible to see that much that we didn’t already know but here are my calculated results for TB20
34 19 48 39
40 20 48 37
48 38 37 45
46 30 29 37
26 24 48 29
196 131 210 187
As you can see there is a big variation in the numbers you get for each training click. A low number of 19 and a high of 48 with only four examples shows that we have a huge variation in the end result, as we also could see in the previous post.
If you have bad luck with your training a supposed good horse could be ruined as a breeding horse very fast. That it will be ruined is not so much because of the PS they inherit to their offsprings but more due to the fact that they need to climb to higher levels to inherit high TB. You level faster at higher ranks and tiers.
What I feel needs to be done at first is to look over the training results. A good start would be to increase the average training results to TB*10 so a TB of 20 has an average result of 200 instead of 174. Today it’s more or less TB*10 that is the maximum results from training, which as I discussed earlier, leave us with tier 4 and 5 unnecessary because no horses can reach them.
Today I have a young stud with TB 28 as my maximum. If training results was TB*10 he would increase his PS with 5880 during his life. I think it could be possible to reach TB 30 but after that it will be very hard when you need to earn 5 levels on both mare and stud to increase TB with single 1 point. To level up 5 times when you are at high levels takes a long time.
Back to the theoretical calculations. If it’s possible to reach TB 30 on a horse AND level 30 meant an average training result of 300/week (in game year) that would give us a theoretical maximum of PS 12600. Tier 4 and 5 would still be out of reach but it would now at least be possible to reach tier 3 universal during the life span from 0-20 years of age.
To increase the effect of training this way will not solve the problem with the theoretical maximum that is a long way from tier 5 universal (which requires PS of 37730) but it will be a start to get a bit longer with our horses and not cap us as early as we are caped today.
Edited 1 times
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